2.5×Growing 2.5× faster than the typical comparable launch.
Compared to 27 comparable launches at the same age.
+257%Launching in a 257% WoW growing category.
Open Source had 100 launches this week vs 28 last.
25Founder Conviction Index: 25 — low signal.
Few of the conviction sub-signals (reputation, velocity, buyer-intent, tagline clarity) are firing yet.
Prediction
Top-5 finish probability
16%
today
Projected end-of-day votes
10range 8–14
Trajectory
stable
Not enough snapshots yet to detect trajectory.
Speed vs peers
2.5×
27 comparable launches
About
MiniMax M3 reaches frontier-level performance on coding and agentic tasks, with a 1M context window powered by the MSA architecture and native multimodal understanding. The first open-weight model to unite all three capabilities.